Will Metro Manila be Prepared for Earthquake?

On the afternoon of July 16, 1990, college student Eddie Tanguilig was enjoying his first ever game of billiards during a month-long students’ strike over tuition fee hikes when he felt the ground shaking. People began to scream and run out of the buildings.

From a building called Castilla Monte near Burnham Park, Tanguilig instinctively ran along with the crowd, all the while thinking of his siblings who were left at home in Tuba, west of Baguio City.

“Sobrang gulo, lahat nagpa-panic, nag-iiyakan. Halu-halo ang mga tao at sasakyan sa daan. Akala mo katapusan na ng mundo," recalls Tanguilig, who was then 18 years old.

Amid the chaos, Tanguilig clearly remembers seeing structures along Harrison Road collapse right before his eyes. One of these buildings was the Baguio Park Hotel, which was reduced to rubble in an instant.

Two decades hence, last January 12, a magnitude-7.0 tremor hit the Caribbean nation of Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere. Its capital, Port-au-Prince, crumbled much like Baguio City and suffered more massive losses and deaths.

“Mas malala iyong nangyari sa Haiti," Tanguilig observes. Upon seeing the devastation on television, he felt lucky to have survived the stronger magnitude-7.8 tremor that shook his hometown two decades ago.

Five-meter buffer zone

Some 300 kilometers away, Metro Manila did not suffer as much as Baguio City in 1990, but experts say its residents cannot afford to be complacent. The active Valley Fault System, more widely known as the Marikina Fault, that traverses the nation’s capital can move anytime.
The Metro Manila Impact Reduction Study conducted in 2004 by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), the Metro Manila Development Authority (MMDA), and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) found that the capital is vulnerable to a magnitude-7.2 earthquake that may be generated by the Marikina Fault.

The study assessed Metro Manila’s preparedness and estimated that there could be 35,000 fatalities, 500 simultaneous fires in up to 98,000 buildings, and 170,000 structures may collapse in the event of strong temblors.

“If a structure is directly on top of an active fault line, then that structure will be completely destroyed," says Dr. Alfredo Mahar Lagmay of the National Institute of Geological Sciences (NIGS) at the University of the Philippines.

Adam Abinales, president of the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines, agrees: “The damage to be incurred by a building which happens to be standing directly on top of a fault line will be greater than that from a building farther away from it."

In metropolitan Manila, which has a population of around 10 million, the active fault traverses parts of Quezon City, Pasig, Taguig, and Pasay. Housing subdivisions, commercial centers, and several schools are found near the heavily populated fault line. (See: DepEd: School buildings to be graded for quake safety)

To pinpoint the distance of a proposed building from the fault line, the Phivolcs has developed a location map of the country’s earthquake faults, according to Ma. Mylene Villegas, Phivolcs Chief Science Research Specialist.

Phivolcs has set up a five-meter buffer zone on both sides of the fault line to guide property developers in their construction projects, Villegas said.
"Developers and design or structural engineers must consult Phivolcs to know how far an active fault is from the planned property. This is [Standard Operating Procedure] for engineers," Abinales says. [See: DPWH exec: Socialized housing units may be prone to quake damage]

However, he adds that such decisions still rest on property owners, and permits from local government units (LGUs) do not include such risks.

“Building inspections from LGUs only cover the building design, not the location," he said. “Ultimately, there will be no liability on the part of the owner. But still, the risk [from building a structure directly on top of a fault line] is there," Abinales says.

Like cooked pasta

With deaths from earthquakes often caused by the collapse of buildings, the strict observance of quality control in the construction and maintenance of structures is imperative.

“It is very difficult to build a structure that will completely resist earthquakes because of the very high amount of energy released [during earthquakes]," Lagmay says. He added that the force from a magnitude-7 tremor is equivalent to the detonation of 1,000 atomic bombs of the type that were used in Nagasaki.

Maximo Noche, an architecture professor at the University of Sto. Tomas, likens buildings to cooked pasta — the longer the pasta or the higher the building, the more flexible it becomes and "the more it will sway with forces like the wind." Similarly, the shorter the pasta (or the height of a building), the more rigid it is.

“In earthquakes around the world, low-rise buildings are damaged more often than high-rise structures," Noche says. He adds that modern high-rise buildings are more resilient to shock forces such as an earthquake.

Many high-rise structures in Metro Manila have reinforcements that allow them to "sway" along with seismic movements, and less of a solid structure standing on the ground, he says.

David Mikael Taclino
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Girl Band Charged with Drugs

 A member of the pop group Girlicious has been charged in California with drug possession with the intent to sell after Glendale police allegedly found a dozen plastic bags of cocaine in her Gucci purse.

Prosecutors say 21-year-old Natalie Mejia (of Diamond Bar and 28-year-old Peter Asencio of Burbank were charged Thursday in Glendale Superior Court.

Asencio is accused of speeding in a 1998 Ford Mustang when he and Mejia were pulled over and arrested Tuesday night.

Police say Mejia said the drugs were not hers and claimed she didn't know how they got into her purse.

Asencio was also charged with driving on a suspended license.

Arraignment was continued to April 15.

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Blue Skies for Airline Industry

 Global airlines are undergoing a surprisingly strong recovery with Asian and Latin American carriers leading the way, the leading industry group said on Thursday, halving its loss forecast for 2010 to $2.8 billion.

The international Air Transport Association said carriers began bouncing back late last year, and have continued to see stronger demand after posting record losses during the global economic crisis. The group also lowered its 2009 loss estimate to $9.4 billion from $11 billion because of the year-end rally.

"We are starting to see some blue skies ahead of us," said IATA chief executive Giovanni Bisignani.

The group, which represents 240 airline companies worldwide, had predicted in December that 2010 losses would total $5.6 billion because of the "extraordinarily low" yields airlines are generating — the average price someone pays to fly one mile.

Yields are now expected to improve 2 percent for passenger planes, and 3.1 percent for cargo traffic this year, despite a glut of planes on the market and lower corporate travel budgets. Both key statistics dived 14 percent in 2009.

Passenger demand should grow 5.6 percent for the year, while cargo demand could jump 12 percent, IATA added. It said strong growth in Asia and Latin America was offsetting lagging demand in Europe and the United States.

"We are seeing a definite two-speed industry," Bisignani told reporters. He noted that American and European travelers may take a longer time to return to higher-priced business class seats for short-haul flights, and said markets in their regions continued to contract.

European carriers are expected to post a $2.2 billion loss, the largest in the world. North American carriers could lose $1.8 billion because of a jobless recovery and poor consumer confidence, the group said.

Bisignani said 2010 represents the halfway point in a recovery effort that could take three years — even if that still doesn't mean profits. Airlines should generate $44 billion in revenues more than last year, but that is still be $43 billion below the industry's 2008 peak, he said.

IATA warned, however, that higher fuel costs would hamper any industrywide rebound. It is now gauging an average oil price of $79 a barrel for the year, meaning $132 billion in costs for carriers. That's over a quarter of all operating costs.

"Oil is a wild card," Bisignani conceded.

Speaking on industry developments, he noted over 30 airlines were knocked out of business since the crisis began and that carriers have lost nearly $50 billion in the last decade. They now hold over $200 billion in debts.

"This is not the time for increases in salaries or prices for services," Bisignani said. "It's certainly not the time for strikes."
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Look Back on Maguindanao Massacre

Even in detention, Mayor Andal Ampatuan Jr. of Datu Unsay town in Maguindanao continues to issue orders to kill those he suspects would expose his role in the November 23 massacre, a former hitman of the Ampatuans revealed on Tuesday.

In an interview with reporters, “Jesse” (not his real name) said around four days after Andal Jr., also known as “Datu Unsay,” was taken into custody by the National Bureau of Investigation in Manila, his cousin and best friend, Datu Kanor, received a call from him ordering that his driver, Tanto, be killed for being “careless.”

Jesse heard Andal Jr. mention his name to do the hit.

Jesse said reports had reached Andal Jr. that Tanto, who had witnessed the massacre but did not participate in the killing, would not stay put in their designated hiding place.

Afraid he would be killed if he did not follow the order, Jesse said he asked Tanto to go with him to “sagingan” — a place planted with bananas — in Barangay Dicalungan.

“Sinabi ko ‘dito tayo mag-guerilla (Let’s do the guerilla operations here),” he related.

In the evening, they put up mosquito nets.

While Tanto was sleeping, Jesse said he shot him twice from behind with his assigned weapon, a baby M203. Some other people took care of burying him, on orders from Andal Jr., he said.

Jesse said Datu Kanor, who remains at large, later asked him to surrender his weapon to him, which he did. Then he learned that there was also an order to kill him. He said Andal Jr. was heard to have said, “Yang si Jesse, kapag nahuli yan, baka magwitness (Jesse might become a witness if he is caught).”

The self-confessed hitman said he found a way to leave Ampatuan’s controlled territory and contacted people who facilitated his trip to Manila. He is being considered under the Witness Protection Program.

In a safehouse, Jesse identified at least six journalists from the pictures of some 30 journalists (among the 58) killed on Nov. 23 shown him.

They were Benjie Adolfo of Gold Star Daily; Henry Araneta, DZRH; Mac-Mac Arriola, UNTV; Lindo Lupogan, Mindanao Daily Gazette; Victor Nuñez, UNTV; and Fernando Razon, Periodico Ini.

At the interview, he narrated the details of the November 23 massacre calmly, which was not the case when he first met his lawyer, said a source who facilitated the meeting with journalists.

But there was still fear in his voice talking about Andal Jr. “Malakas siya. May cell phone siya kahit nakakulong. Tumatawag at nagti-text (He is untouchable. He has a cellphone even in detention. He calls and sends text messages),” he said.

In a narration of events given to a lawyer with the help of a translator, Jesse said of Andal Jr. “would send word to us to stay where we are — to be patient — because he will prevail over his enemies. He said not even the Mangundadatus would be able to defeat him because the Ampatuans have the money and the connections. He would also warn us that any of us who decides to betray him will pay dearly for it. He would warn us that he will eventually catch up with anyone who turns against him. Not even prison walls can stop him, he would say.”

He said it was Andal Jr. who picked him to serve as a member of the Police Auxiliary Force (PAF) of Ampatuan town because he saw him involved in street brawls.

“Hindi ako natatalo (I never lost in fights),” he said. He was assigned as close-in bodyguard of Datu Kanor.

As a member of the town’s PAF, he was paid a monthly salary of P3,000 and a sack of rice. In addition, Datu Kanor would occasionally give him small amounts ranging from P200 to P500 as allowance.

Jesse said as Datu Kanor’s close-in bodyguard, he was privy to the conversations of his boss with the Ampatuans.

He said the planning for the November 23 massacre was finalized in a meeting at the Ampatuan house a week before among Andal Sr., Andal Jr., Datu Kanor, Datu Mama and several others he could not remember. He said he was just two meters away from the group.

The decision was to stop Esmael “Toto” Magundadatu by all means, the hitman said.

Jesse said Datu Kanor deployed him and the other auxiliaries under him on November 21, a Friday.

They were about 200, complete with armored trucks bristling with .50- and .30-caliber machineguns.

“Datu Kanor himself manned the roadblock we placed along the highway, not far from a bridge. I accompanied him there. Also with us was a man who was introduced to me as Superintendent Dicay, a PNP (Philippine National Police) officer,” he said.

He remembered seeing some 30 soldiers who were told to leave.

He said the Mangundadatus showed up at the roadblock late morning Sunday.

As ordered, he seized the video cameras of what he took to be media people on the lead vehicle, a white pickup.

Then at gunpoint the people in the convoy were ordered to step out of the vehicles and form a line beside their vehicles. They confiscated cell phones, cameras, and other electronic equipment and placed them on a table they set up near the roadblock.

“Shortly after, Datu Unsay arrived, toting a baby M203 rifle grenade launcher,” Jesse said. “He headed for the third van, which carried the Mangudadatus. I saw Datu Unsay hit Genalyn Mangudadatu with the butt of his rifle on the left cheek. She staggered and gave a cry of pain. She cursed Datu Unsay.”

Mangudadatu and his party, among them some 30 journalists and some uninvolved motorists, were herded back into the vehicles and brought to the hilly portion of Sitio Masalay in Barangay Salman, Ampatuan town.

“Only 26 of us accompanied the convoy to Masalay. Seven of us were designated as shooters by Datu Unsay — himself, Datu Kanor, Datu Ban, Datu Mama, myself, a certain Kudja, and a police officer whom I knew to be Police Officer 1 Ando Masukat,” Jesse said.

“Three of us shooters were armed with Baby M203 rifle grenade launchers—myself, Datu Ban and Datu Unsay; Datu Mama held an AK-47 rifle; Datu Kanor, a K-3 light machinegun. Both Kudja and Ando Masukat were armed with M16 Armalite rifles.

“When we reached the hill, Datu Unsay, who came in his black DMX truck, ordered the passengers in the third van to alight first. I followed the passengers as they stepped out of the van. As Genalyn Mangudadatu emerged from the van, Datu Unsay hit her on the left cheek with the butt of his gun. She staggered at the blow and nearly collapsed to the ground, breaking into loud sobs. Datu Unsay then told everyone to form a line and to lie prostrate on the ground not far from the van. The victims complied with his order. We shooters then formed a jagged line just a foot or so away behind them.

“Genalyn Mangudadatu lay at the head of the line. When Datu Unsay tried to pull her up by an arm to stand, she refused. Instead, she knelt on the ground. An angry Datu Unsay then aimed his baby M203 rifle grenade launcher at her back and fired pointblank on full automatic mode. I heard the woman gave a loud cry as she fell to the ground,” he narrated.

Jesse said Andal Jr. then gave the order to start shooting: “Sige (Go ahead), fight.”

“I pulled the trigger — we all pulled the trigger and we all fired on full automatic mode. We stood so close to our victims that when we stopped shooting, we were all drenched in blood and bits of human remains — brain matter, bone splinters, strips of skin. Datu Unsay’s white polo shirt turned to crimson,” he said.

Jesse can’t say how many he killed but when he stopped firing, and checked his weapon, he found out he had fired 23 out of 30 rounds.

The witness was conscience stricken especially when he heard Andal Jr. say while laughing, “Wala nang kalaban. Wala akong pakialam sa media (The enemies are gone. I don’t care about the media).”
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Pinoy Poet Honored in 28th SF Asian American Film Fest

 Poet, activist, and Fillmore District native Al Robles will be honored on March 14 at 12:30 p.m. in San Francisco’s Fillmore Plaza on Fillmore and O’Farrell Streets with music, poetry, and remembrance.

Supervisor Eric Mar will lead community members in recognizing the son of the Fillmore who is memorialized with a plaque in Fillmore Plaza.

The life of Al Robles is featured in filmmaker Curtis Choy’s film, “Manilatown is in the Heart, Time Travel with Al Robles,” a documentary featured at the Asian American Film Festival Sundance Kabuki Cinema on March 14 at 2 p.m. and on March 15 at 7 p.m.

The documentary is the second film project between Choy and Robles, the first being “The Fall of the I-Hotel,” which featured Robles as the film narrator. The film follows Robles growing up with the jazz of his youth in Fillmore with zen monks, jazz musicians and young bloods, to his life as an activist and poet.

Robles chronicled the lives of Filipino immigrants, weaving their histories into his poetic and community work, which included the fight against the eviction of elders from the International Hotel, a struggle that gave Manilatown worldwide attention.

“Al Robles was the poet laureate—the heart and spirit—of the Manilatown and Filipino communities. San Francisco will never forget his tireless work supporting seniors and housing justice, fighting displacement and gentrification and nurturing youth in our communities,” said San Francisco District Supervisor Eric Mar.

Robles passed away in May 2009 leaving a legacy of activism and community involvement that has inspired elders and youth alike. In the words of hip hop poet Jeremy Bautista, “Much love and respect. From the Hip Hop Generation to Uncle Al, our hero!”

For more information, check out the Asian American Film Festival website, Curtis Choy’s film website, or Al Robles’s website.
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Graduation Scandal

 A university student was charged Friday with the malversation of P400,000 representing graduation funds in the Manila City Prosecutor’s Office.

The money was collected from senior students of the Philippine Normal University for their graduation ball and had been entrusted to Jayson Dalde, 19, the treasurer of the school’s seniors’ committee.

The teenager, a resident of Marikina City, was charged with qualified theft after the discovery of his attempt to attribute to burglars the loss of the P400,000 in cash, as well as receipts of expenses incurred by the committee and student payment records.

Improbable

Manila Police District Theft and Robbery section head Chief Insp. Edgardo Carpio said Dalde’s co-members of the committee found his story improbable, and accused him of stealing the sum and the financial documents to conceal the crime.

In his complaint, seniors’ committee auditor Ray Mark Cariquez said the theft happened between 5:30 p.m. of Feb. 20 and 4 p.m. of Feb. 23 at the committee office on the ground floor of BP Sibayan Hall inside the university.

Cariquez said he was told about the stolen cash by committee president Christopher Palabay, based on a report given to him by Dalde.

Puzzling

What Cariquez, however, found puzzling was Dalde’s hesitation in reporting the “burglary” to the police.

The treasurer’s subsequent actions aroused the committee’s suspicion when he failed five times to attend a meeting he set to count the total collection from the students .

Cariquez told police investigators that he recalled Dalde telling him before the incident—around the third week of February—that there was a “big deficit” in the funds.

The theft and robbery section chief said some of the money and documents had been kept inside a filing cabinet in the office. Initially, only Dalde held the key to the cabinet.

Deficit

It was only the week before the missing funds and documents were discovered—the same week when Dalde had approached Cariquez regarding the “big fund deficit”—when duplicates were given to the auditor and the committee adviser.

“There was an apparent attempt to pin the blame on someone else in the organization,” Carpio said.

After Cariquez conducted an audit, he discovered that the cash was missing after he checked the actual receipts he kept of payments made by the graduating students.
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Gibo and his Family Feud

Family feuds may be a hallmark of Philippine politics, but according to administration standard-bearer Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, his own feud with the family of his uncle, industrialist and Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) founder Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco, should have no place in the current presidential race.

“We are talking about the country, not one family, not the hurt feelings of one person ... And for the good of the people, I’d go for the Filipino people than the hurt feelings of a family,” Teodoro Friday told reporters on the sidelines of the Chamber of Thrift Banks’ national convention at the Dusit Thani hotel in Makati City.

Teodoro was reacting to a statement made by his first cousin Lisa Cojuangco Cruz, a daughter of Danding’s, that the family was “hurt” when Teodoro abandoned the NPC and joined the administration without a formal goodbye.

“It does not have any effect on the life of Juan de la Cruz, or in my platform of government. [It should not be an issue in a] presidential election, and I’m not going down to that level,” he added.

‘Anybody but Gibo’

Teodoro, a former defense secretary and also a former representative of Tarlac, is the only son of Mercedes Cojuangco-Teodoro, a sister of Danding’s.

Last month, Danding’s wife Gretchen said she would go for “anybody but Gibo” in the presidential election.

And as if to show the extent of the family’s hurt feelings, the other day Lisa Cruz joined the campaign of Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, the Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer and her second cousin.

The Aquinos and the Cojuangcos themselves have not exactly been on the best of terms. (See What Went Before on this page.)

But Noynoy Aquino is not ruling out a loose alliance with the NPC, especially at the local level.

And his youngest sister Kris, the celebrity talk show host, said on Thursday that she would try to get Danding Cojuangco in her brother’s camp.

NPC-LP candidates

Speaking Friday with reporters, Aquino said the LP and NPC had common candidates in more areas than the NPC had with the Nacionalista Party (NP), whose standard-bearer is Sen. Manuel Villar.

Most of the NPC’s rivals at the local level are from the NP or the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD, Aquino observed.

Even his running mate, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas, said an alliance between the LP and NPC would be more realistic than an NPC-NP tieup.

“We don’t see any sincerity in the supposed coalition between the NP and NPC because they have competing candidates at the local level,” Roxas said, citing Dumaguete City, Davao del Sur and South Cotabato as examples.

A step forward

If Teodoro has lost the support of the Cojuangcos, he gained a backer in Las Piñas Rep. Cynthia Villar, the wife of the NP standard-bearer.

Cynthia Villar said in a TV interview that she would support Teodoro in the presidential race if her husband were not himself a candidate.

“I just take everything as positives,” Teodoro said in reaction to Cynthia Villar’s statement. “Any positive statement in a highly charged political atmosphere is a step forward for something that we need.”

Teodoro said he would work to unite the country if he wins the presidency in May.

“All these beautiful programs will fly out of the window if we do not have some form of political accord and harmony. That is the most important factor. Our country has not been able to sustain anything [because of] the lack of principled political harmony,” he said.

Campaigning separately

Teodoro, a consistent fourth-placer in surveys on presidential preferences since January, said he remained hopeful that he would win with the help of a campaign strategy and the Lakas-Kampi-CMD machinery.

He dismissed suggestions that his campaign strategy—which apparently consists of himself, his running mate Edu Manzano, and their senatorial candidates campaigning separately instead of as a team—was ineffective.

“The area is so big, and logistically, it’s really difficult to move as one. So the campaign was really designed in such a way that we campaign separately,” he said in Filipino.

Teodoro said criticisms were expected.

“If you move together very slowly, they will also say that you’re not covering the [whole] Philippines. So [the strategy] was designed that way,” he said, adding:

“I will not stop until I’m No. 1.”

No. 2

A survey conducted by Campaigns & Image with the Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting showed Teodoro ranking second to front-runner Villar.

According to a statement issued by Teodoro’s spokesperson Mike Toledo, the survey results showed Villar with a rating of 31 percent; Teodoro, 24 percent; Aquino, 20 percent; and Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino, 13 percent.

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