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Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Who gets Game 3 - NBA Finals Update

 Ron ArtestI realize there isn’t an NBA team anywhere near Kansas City and that means there aren’t a lot of NBA fans – at least compared to MLB or NFL – who might be reading UFR. Nevertheless, I am a fan and so I’m going to report after each game in the finals. I would probably do it regardless of who the two teams were, but when it’s the Lakers-Celtics, you can’t go wrong.
Of course, Los Angeles won game #1 the way I expected – dominating at home. Game two was much more like the typical Lakers-Celtics wars of yesteryear – although nowhere near the scoring. Though the final margins of the two games were similar, game #2 was far more competitive.
Having watched both contests, I have a few  thoughts.
Game 1: 67 Free Throw Attempts - Boooring!
Game 2: 67 Free Throw Attempts - Boooring!

As Ron Artest goes, so go the Lakers
Artest was an abysmal 1-10 from the field, 1-6 from the arc and 3-8 from the line. It doesn’t get much worse than that. He is important defensively, but you simply can’t begin to overcome a -3 EFF in 40+ minutes!
I don’t think I’ve ever discussed this yet on UFR. It’s one thing to get a -3 in two minutes of action, but something entirely different in 40 minutes. If you add all the Lakers individual EFFs you get 106. Since there are 240 man-minutes in a game, that means for each minute played per person, they should have racked up .442 EFFs.
Since Artest played 40:31, he should have had an 18 EFF to be consistent with the team. Even worse, take his 40:31 out of the mix and you have 109 divided into 192 minutes. That’s .568 EFF per man minute. If he had done as well as the rest of the team on a per-minute basis, he would have had an EFF of 23.
I can assure you that if he had a 23 instead of a -3, the Lakers would have won… easily. The loss of this game falls at the feet of one person – Ron Artest.

What is Artest doing jacking so many threes?
I looked at the last 30 games that each of the players have played – which includes 18 in the playoffs and the last dozen of the regular season. Here is a stat that will make you quiver in your boots if you are a Lakers’ fan.
COOL FACTOID: Ron Artest has taken more three-point shots than Kobe Bryant over the last 30 games each has played.
That might be ok if it was 2008 (38.0%) or 2009 (39.9%), but in 2010, he only shot 35.5% and over his last 30 games, he’s bricking them at 26.2%.
In Bryant’s last 30 games, he’s shooting treys at 40.3%! Huge difference. Here are the three-point stats for Fisher, Bryant, Farmar and Artest over the last 30 games.

Player
Treys.Attempted
3pt%
Artest
145
26.2
Bryant
144
40.3
Fisher
96
36.5
Farmar
81
45.7
-
Can anyone explain to me what a non-ball handling, defensive forward is doing shooting more threes than any of the guards on the team – including Kobe Bryant – especially when he’s only clanking them at 26% !?
It’s hard to believe Jackson likes it, but you have to figure he probably tolerates it in order to keep his (Artest’s) mind right.

Rajon Rondo was even better than Ray Allen
Rondo will get some props because he is the flavor of the month for the talking heads – not to mention a triple-double. But, most people will certainly make the blanket assumption that Ray Allen won the game for Boston. Although it was close by EFF, Rondo had a 28 and Allen a 26.
While it is true that Allen outscored Rondo 32-19 – including a finals record eight three-pointers on only 11 attempts, it’s also true that Rondo had nine more rebounds and eight more assists!
Besides, every one of those eight three-pointers came in the first three quarters. LA had the lead after that. It was Rondo’s play down the stretch that won the game for the Celtics.
Unquestionably, the headline(s) will read… Ray Allen this, Ray Allen that. In fact, the first person mentioned in every story I looked at was “Ray Allen”. It’s just one more example (out of millions) where the public and the reporter are fooled by scoring.
You will know (well, you won’t know because you will be dead of old age) that reporting has evolved when you see a game like this and the lead headline is “Rajon Rondo leads Celtics to victory”.

EFFs for games 1 and 2
Los Angeles
Player
Game 1
Game 2
Gasol
32
37
Bryant
28
19
Artest
18
-3
Bynum
11
25
Fisher
10
10
Odom
6
6
Brown
5
4
Farmar
5
3
Vujacic
2
5
Walton
1
-
Boston
Player
Game 1
Game 2
Pierce
28
9
Rondo
14
28
Garnett
14
13
Wallace
12
12
Perkins
11
16
R.Allen
8
26
Davis
4
7
T.Allen
1
3
Finley
0
Robinson
7
Williams
-2
-
I don’t have a prediction on game #3. However, I’m sticking with the Lakers winning the series. It will be tough to win in six, having lost one of two at home, but I still think they are the superior team.
One last item of interest. On the way home, one of those brilliant late-night radio hosts made a comment to this effect – meaning paraphrased: “I think it is important that LA win at least one game in Boston because they have to get back the home court advantage.”
Hey Sherlock! I’ve got an even better reason why they need to win at least on game in Boston. Because if they don’t… they will lose the series 4-1.

David Mikael Taclino
Inyu Web Development and Design Creative Writer

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