But one after another, each of them — the billionaire, the veteran politicians and the other ideological adversaries who boasted that they could take on Kirsten E. Gillibrand in a Senate race — was scared away, leaving their supporters to wonder: What is so frightening about Ms. Gillibrand?
After all, her poll numbers are unimpressive, and she has never been elected statewide. But the tough challenge that even her advisors expected this year has not materialized.
“I think Gillibrand either has mystical powers or the best luck I have ever seen in politics,” said the Rev. Al Sharpton, who was initially skeptical of her. “It is amazing.”
Vito J. Lopez, the head of the Brooklyn Democratic Party, who has been open to someone challenging Ms. Gillibrand for the party nomination, sounded vexed after spending many hours meeting with Democrats seeking his endorsement to run against her, only to see them abandon the idea.
“It’s been extremely frustrating,” said Mr. Lopez, who has yet to endorse Ms. Gillibrand. “No one has told me directly why they dropped out.”
Even former Representative Harold E. Ford Jr., who denounced party elders who told him as he mulled a primary fight that it would not be good for Democrats, kept out of the race, basically mouthing the same message.
Ms. Gillibrand has been under siege almost from the moment she was appointed by Gov. David A. Paterson to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in January 2009. Initially, she faced the possibility of challenges from members of her own party, including the Manhattan borough president, Scott M. Stringer; Representative Steve Israel of Long Island; and Representative Carolyn B. Maloney of Manhattan. But they all opted out.
“I really did feel like this was the one that got away,” said Joe Trippi, the political consultant who worked for Ms. Maloney. “I felt we could have won that seat.”
Several would-be Republican opponents have also stayed out, including former Gov. George E. Pataki and Mortimer B. Zuckerman, the real estate tycoon and publisher of The Daily News.
At this point, Ms. Gillibrand has only token Republican opposition: Bruce A. Blakeman, who dropped out of the New York mayoral race last year; David Malpass, a former economist at Bear Stearns who worked in the Reagan administration; and Joseph J. DioGuardi, a former member of the House.
What makes all the potential contenders ultimately duck the race is not clear. But this much is obvious: Running for Senate in New York is a big undertaking. It takes doggedness, a thick skin and a lot of money.
It has undoubtedly helped Ms. Gillibrand that her powerful allies, like the state’s senior senator, Charles E. Schumer, and President Obama, have helped ward off potential Democratic challengers.
But a more likely explanation is that Ms. Gillibrand possesses assets most of the aspiring senators lack. She has a legitimate geographic base, having represented an Albany-area Congressional district in a part of the state where her family is prominent. She has a network of donors, especially women, who are not going to abandon her. She has a commitment to working her tail off to keep the seat, a fact that even her political enemies grudgingly acknowledge.
And, perhaps most important, she has $5.1 million in her campaign account.
“She remains vulnerable to a surprising degree at this stage of the game,” said a senior Republican strategist who tried to recruit a top-tier candidate to run against her. “But the vulnerability that Gillibrand has is offset by her dominant cash position. That is what has made Democrats blink and it is what has made Republicans blink.”
An adviser to Ms. Gillibrand echoed that sentiment, saying that while she is politically vulnerable, no one who opposed her would come out of the race unscathed.
“She is weak, but she is no pushover,” said the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he did not want to be seen as publicly acknowledging her problems. “So there’s a lot to lose in running against her. Nobody is willing to take the risk.”
Mr. Stringer, the Manhattan borough president, said he was impressed that Ms. Gillibrand was still standing after a long procession of potential challengers had vowed to topple her.
“Who’s the parakeet now?” he said, referring to an insult that Mr. Ford had directed at her.
“It was hers to fumble,” he continued, referring to the Senate seat. “A lot of people thought she would.”
David Mikael Taclino
Inyu Web Development and Design
Creative Writer
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