Britain is
bracing for a May 6 general election that may alter the landscape of its
politics — a race that offers at least three unpredictable outcomes and
one of the most dramatic since
Tony Blair defeated the Conservatives in
1997.
Prime
Minister Gordon Brown announced the long-awaited election date
Tuesday as the resurgent Conservatives prepared for battle against the
bedraggled Labour incumbents with the nation drowning in debt after a
golden age of economic prosperity.
Youthful and charismatic Conservative leader
David Cameron once seemed
certain to grab power after 13 years of Labour rule — but tightening
polls and quirks of the British election system leave the outcome
uncertain. Whoever wins, Britain could well become an altered state with
higher taxes, fewer services, tougher business regulations and less
willingness to join expensive U.S.-led
military campaigns.
"Last year, I didn't care at all about this
election," said Jacob McDonald, a 24-year-old business graduate who has
been on a job hunt for nearly a year. "But now I think this could
actually be big — so big that it could to make or break my life in the
next five years. I plan on voting, but haven't made a choice yet."
The election comes at a bruising time for Britain's
main political parties — all three were stung in a scandal about
expenses that exposed lawmakers who filed claims for everything from
pornography to chandeliers at their country estates. Voters, meanwhile,
lost jobs and homes as Britain struggled with the worst recession since
World War II and the
largest deficit among the Group of Seven nations.
In the end, voter disillusionment may help. But polls
suggest it's more likely that for the first time since 1974, neither
party will win an
absolute
majority in
Parliament.
Polls have given Cameron's Tories a slight lead —
between 4 and 10 percentage points — but Britain has an election system
that at times has been stacked against the Conservatives because of
voting districts. It is the majority of districts won — not the majority
of votes — that will determine which party will lead the next
government.
The
Conservatives need to capture about 130 more seats in the
House of Commons from
Labour and other parties to win a majority. Labour now holds 345 of the
House of Common's 646 seats. A party needs 326 seats to win a majority
in government.
Recent district changes to reflect population shifts
will give the Tories an estimated 12 more seats while Labour loses
seven, according to the University of Plymouth. The recent changes and
the expected gains may still be too few to give the Tories a majority
lead, although polls indicate more people may be voting Tory this
election.
Like U.S.
congressional districts, district seats are
allocated according to population, but Britain's system has been slow
to catch up to massive shifts of population.
If the
election
result gives neither party a majority, a government could be
delayed and parties forced to scramble for a coalition. It could also
spell another election this year.
Brown, who has often been criticized for his wooden
persona but admired for his intellectual prowess, promised Tuesday to
"fight on behalf of hard working families on middle-class and modest
incomes," and said only Labour, not the Conservatives, could be trusted
to keep the economy out of a downturn.
A Labour defeat would bring to a close a British
political era that began with Blair's landslide 1997 election victory,
which saw unprecedented three successive electoral triumphs for the
center-left party. But it would also be a crushing personal blow to the
59-year-old Brown, who waited until 2007 for Blair to step aside.
If the Conservatives beat their image as being the
so-called "nasty party" of privilege, the 43-year-old Cameron could be
the
youngest prime
minister in nearly two centuries since Lord Liverpool was elected
at 42. Blair became prime minister days before his 44th birthday.
Cameron, who has been criticized by Labour for a lack
of substance, has sought to replace his party's stuffy image with a
more modern brand of "
compassionate Conservatism," appointing
more women and ethnic minorities as candidates for an organization long
dominated by affluent white men like himself.
With his bicycle riding, informal "call-me-Dave"
manner and young family — his wife Samantha is expecting their fourth
child in September — Cameron appears best placed to benefit from a
U.S.-styled personality-centered contest. Some see a parallel with
Labour's former savior Blair.
"It's the most important election for a generation,
and it comes down to this: You don't have to put up with another five
years of
Gordon Brown,"
he said Tuesday, urging that Tory was "voting for the fresh start our
country so badly needs."
The third place
Liberal Democrats' leader Nick Clegg said
the election would be anything but the "two-horse race" between Labour
and Conservatives.
"It is a very exciting opportunity for everyone in
Britain who wants
fairness and real change, who wants something different," Clegg said
Tuesday, blaming Labour for what he called the illegal invasion of Iraq,
corruption in
Parliament
and the failure to regulate the banks.
Labour lost a significant share of its seats in 2005 when voters blamed
them for joining the U.S.-led invasion in
Iraq.
An ICM poll published late Sunday by The Guardian newspaper showed
Labour closing in on its main rival — climbing to within a few
percentage points of the Tories. Other polls, however, showed larger
Tory leads. The forecasts are based on the parties' current seats and
how a significant swing in votes could alter the outcome.
Britain's struggling economy and enormous debt will dominate the
campaign. Both Labour and the Conservatives say they will trim spending
and slash the country's 167 billion pound ($250 billion) deficit — but
they differ on how deep, and how soon, to make cuts.
The Tories have pledged to reverse Labour's planned increase to national
insurance, a payroll tax, and implement about 6 billion pounds in
spending cuts this year. Labour says major cuts should be deferred until
2011 to give the economy more time to recover.
Cameron's party also plans to cut the number of lawmakers, offer tax
breaks to married couples and overhaul Britain's education system. Brown
promises a public referendum on changing Britain's voting system,
improved cancer treatment and a new high-speed
national rail network.
The major parties agree on international issues — both would keep
British troops in Afghanistan and seek to preserve the so-called
"special relationship" with the U.S.
The campaign will also include the first U.S.-styled TV debates among
the leaders of Labour, the Conservatives and the third-placed
Liberal Democrats.
Parliament will
shut Monday for the start of campaign. Brown met with
Queen Elizabeth II at
Buckingham Palace on
Tuesday to ask her to dissolve Parliament.
While
voter turnout
in the election is likely to hover around 60 percent, Britain's
enthusiasm for political betting remains strong.
Bookmakers say 20 million pounds ($30 million) will rest on the
election.
Bookmaker Paddy Power said the Conservatives were 1-6 favorites to win,
with Labour at 7-2. The odds of a hung Parliament were 13-8.
Spokesman Darren Haines said for bookies "the most favorable outcome
would be a Lib-Dem win" — a 200-1 longshot.
David Mikael Taclino
Inyu Web Development and Design
Creative Writer